Cyber and CEMA: Threats from under the surface and within the grey zone

Our 2023 survey of senior defence leaders found that the weaponisation of cyber and the importance of cyber to defence is seen to be putting more pressure on the implementation of defence technology strategy than conventional wars such as the one being seen between Russia and Ukraine. 

In military and defence contexts, cyber falls under the category of the grey zone – where damage can be done without physical interaction or traditional conflict methods. The grey zone is a murky area, described by the Australian government as comprising “activities designed to coerce countries in ways that seek to avoid military conflict”. These activities, which include the likes of interference operations and the spreading of misinformation, are “facilitated by technological developments including cyber warfare”.

Our research confirmed these concerns, with 52% citing the spread of misinformation as a concerning factor about the grey zone, joined by the constant expansion of the grey zone (60%) and challenges in the attribution of cyber activity (54%).

Knowing how to combat cyber threats from a military perspective begins and ends with technology. Technology that is connected, delivers transparent and shared information, and that acknowledges cyber as one of the five key domains that make up our current and future battlespace.

A global concern

Cyber holds a dubious position in modern warfare because cyber-attacks are still not considered official acts of war. Attacks are often unseen and hard to attribute to particular threat actors or nation states. Yet, they can cause severe harm – either to society by attacking critical national infrastructure assets or utilities, or in physical battlespaces where electromagnetic signals can disrupt or corrupt communications. It’s due to this range of threats that the concept of ‘CEMA’ (cyber and electromagnetic activities) has become so prominent in today’s battlespace.

Unsurprisingly, given the rate of digital development more broadly, these attacks will only rise in the coming years. This leads to 60% of senior defence leaders in Australia believing that cyber-attacks pose the biggest vulnerability to national defence. In some countries, like the UK (75%) and Canada (73%), this figure rises even higher – while the Nordics stands level with Australia at 60%. This confirms that cyber is very much a global concern.

Ultimately, with 92% of Australian respondents agreeing that cyber and hybrid warfare will be major challenges in the future battlespace, this grey zone threat poses a very real problem. However, it’s not without a known solution.

Tackling cyber with MDI

Multi-Domain Integration (MDI) is that solution, in that it fights technology with technology. 

It serves as a proposed model where digital threads are created across domains, connected through state-of-the-art solutions that promote real-time information generation and the seamless connectivity and sharing of that data. This ensures that the right information is reaching the right people at the right time. 

There is also a cultural element to this model, with a need to break down siloes across the ally ecosystem and encourage a level of sharing that has perhaps not been entertained before. In a cyber context where attacks have very little boundaries or borders, this need to connect domains, departments, sectors and even nations is critical.

It seems the Australian defence community agrees, with 96% concurring that MDI is important to shaping military operations today and in the future. Respondents note that MDI is key to navigating increased cyber warfare attacks and challenges in the grey zone, along with more general breaches in national security, threats to national economies, and to simply keep up with modern warfare.

Breaking down the benefits further into more operational military considerations, respondents highlighted MDI’s ability to improve situational awareness (58%), quality of decision making (54%) and preparation for potential warfare (52%). Interestingly, when asked what risks they would be facing if an MDI model wasn’t adopted in the next five years, increased cyber warfare attacks on nations (50%) was the most popular response. 

CEMA: MDI’s chief enabler

Tellingly, 96% of senior Australian defence leaders agree that MDI strategies allow for a proactive response to cyber security attacks and AI developments. A resounding 94% also agree that MDI programmes can either mitigate against, or build an understanding of, misinformation in the grey zone. 
By its very nature, a core component of MDI is CEMA integration – which exploits electronic warfare, cyber and security capabilities to deliver that much needed information and decision advantage within an MDI framework. 

The integration and orchestration of CEMA enables full exploitation of the wireless spectrum to provide the operational flexibility that senior defence leaders are craving. At present, 80% of those surveyed have adopted CEMA systems as part of their MDI development, but its full potential is yet to be realised. This is illustrated by the fact that only 40% of respondents have fully adopted CEMA systems, with 18% still in the planning/pilot stage.

CEMA solutions can help understand the electromagnetic environment defence leaders are operating in. This enables an ability to manage, synchronise and control their activities to protect equipment and personnel, while delivering operational advantages that simultaneously deny and degrade adversaries’ use of both the digital and physical battlefield.

Yet, our research suggests that there is still a need to embed CEMA into overall defence strategy more concertedly – a strategy built around MDI that reflects the growing cyber threat. When doing so, the result is a successful fightback against that cyber vector, championing three critical elements: data, network layer and communication.

As such, when trying to gain visibility of the grey zone and of threats lurking under the surface, by championing an MDI model, CEMA solution integration will likely be among the most pivotal steps taken by defence decision makers in the coming years.