2025 has been another year of significant technological development across the defence and security landscape. We’ve seen new threats come to the fore, AI capabilities continue to grow in prominence and a greater focus on integrated defence operations. So, what’s the outlook for the next 12 months?
Here, our experts outline what they expect to see in 2026, covering: countering space threats; human deception in cyber security; AI in defence operations; responding to the UAV threat; subsea to space; and the role of secure cloud in military operations.
Space Control leads the way in countering threats to space assets
The space domain has never been more crucial to defence, national security and economic prosperity. Protecting space-based assets while assuring access to operate in, from and through space is therefore vital for the UK and its allied partners around the world. However, we are facing a threat from adversary nations that has grown considerably over recent years.
From ground-based electronic warfare capabilities such as GPS jamming and laser dazzling targeting space assets, to hiding counterspace activities within what appear to be legitimate missions, our adversaries are openly developing, testing and implementing offensive space capabilities that pose a threat to geostationary orbit. Major General Paul Tedman, head of UK Space Command, recently highlighted the scale of the issue when he revealed that Russia is targeting UK satellites on a “weekly” basis. The race to protect and grow sovereign interests while disabling and degrading the space capabilities of other nations is well and truly on.
As such, 2026 will be the year when Space Control comes to the fore as a means of countering today’s threats, delivering space-based effects, and enabling freedom of action in and through space. Nations will actively develop space control capabilities in 2026 to gain an operational advantage in a domain that will continue to become increasingly contested throughout the next 12 months and beyond.
Combatting human deception moves to the forefront of cyber security strategies
Several high-profile attacks in 2025 kept cyber security firmly in the spotlight, with the UK’s National Cyber Security Centre reporting that the country was experiencing four ‘nationally significant’ incidents a week. This attention will only intensify in 2026, bringing both negative and positive consequences as attackers grow in confidence and organisations attempt to further strengthen their defences.
As CISOs and regulators proactively review gaps in security approaches, the human element of cyber will be a key focus next year. Driven by rapid AI developments, the means for human deception – through social engineering, deepfakes and other manipulation techniques – are becoming increasingly prevalent. It is now easier and cheaper than ever for cyber criminals to trick individuals into making costly mistakes by creating or altering text, voice, images or video, with unprecedented realism. The attack surface expands significantly when we consider the intricate chain of suppliers and IT helpdesks organisations now rely on, making human deception one of the most complex areas to combat.
To meet this challenge, the UK will double down on taking a ‘whole-of-society’ approach – involving industry, academia, citizens and government – to strengthen digital resilience at a national level. Collaboration, such as through Threat Intelligence sharing, along with education and responsible innovation will be vital for keeping pace with adversaries and enabling us to create trust in the online world.
AI shifts from experimentation to real-world defence operations
After years of exploration, 2026 will see many AI projects in defence move into real-world operational exploitation, driven by the need to deliver out of innovation at wartime pace. The focus will shift beyond experiment to action, as defence organisations prove how AI can safely and effectively enhance human decision-making in complex, high trust environments.
An area in which this transition will be most profound is using AI in defence operations, particularly for Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR). Increasingly, AI algorithms will be applied not just to scan imagery, but to fuse complex signals and unstructured open-source data in near real-time. The aim will be to reveal patterns invisible to the human eye, freeing up analysts to focus on high-value decision-making.
Crucially, data will be brought together from sensors on assets operating across different domains – spanning subsea, sea, land, air and space – as well as information shared between allies. The defence sector will work to securely consolidate this information into a unified data architecture, enabling AI to accurately analyse it, interpret patterns and identify potential threats.
However, the true stretch for 2026 will be ‘AI at the edge’. We will move beyond relying solely on cloud processing; instead, we will see AI deployed directly onto sensors and platforms. This ensures that even in contested environments where communications are jammed, assets can still generate insight and maintain situational awareness. In certain cases, we will also begin to see autonomous vehicles and platforms act on AI-derived insights, while maintaining a human in the loop.
Against this backdrop, trust and responsible innovation will be critical. As AI moves closer to real-world deployment, 2026 will see AI systems put through rigorous testing, assurance and governance to ensure they are mature enough to operate safely and ethically in high-stakes scenarios.
AI-driven Command & Control takes centre stage to counter the UAV threat
The last 12 months have been characterised by a dramatic increase in the utilisation of uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) around the world. From frontline soldiers on the battlefield to domestic criminals and homegrown enthusiasts, the operation of UAVs such as drones has surged due to their usability and wide range of capability for relatively low cost. As defence assets, UAVs can be deployed to deliver kinetic effect, carry out reconnaissance missions, or simply act as a deterrent – often operating below the threshold of traditional war in the ‘grey zone’ of conflict.
This rise of UAVs is already driving a surge in data gathered by sensors across the electromagnetic spectrum – spanning optical, radar and radio-frequency domains – all designed to identify UAVs and analyse their intent. With UAV use set to continue growing in 2026, these data volumes will expand further. As a result, operators are increasingly challenged to interpret, prioritise and act on this information within the highly compressed decision timelines that UAV operations impose.
That’s why a key focus for 2026 will be on establishing the right Command & Control (C2) infrastructure to empower decision-makers and accelerate the sensor-to-effector process. Militaries and governments will invest in solutions that can connect data from multiple sensors, fuse different data types together and put trusted AI into action for real-time classification and engagement recommendations. The next wave of C2 will emphasise automation-assisted decision-making, transparent AI reasoning and seamless integration with both legacy and emerging effectors. This is what will equip decision makers, whether military or police, with the intelligence they need to respond at the required speed and precision in a new era of persistent, proliferated and increasingly autonomous UAV threats.
Connecting battlespace intelligence from seabed to space becomes a strategic imperative
Across all warfighting domains, the battlespace is changing faster than ever before. From the growing use of commercial drones in land conflicts to the increasing frequency and severity of subsea threats, nations around the world are facing a constant challenge to keep pace with technological innovation – a challenge which is being exacerbated by the uncertainty that accompanies today’s heightened geopolitical tensions.
With all this in mind, having access to indicators and warnings of threat events across the defence environment has never been more important. This all comes down to data – which is already plentiful. However, having access to greater volumes of data from multiple sources – from seabed sensors to surface and sub-surface platforms, airborne platforms and satellites – does not automatically mean deeper insights or better decision making.
That’s why, although nations have continued to improve how they collect battlespace data, in 2026 we’ll see a greater focus on analysing, transmitting and fusing multi-source data as part of an agile digital system to produce greater domain awareness and actionable intelligence. Such an approach will, for example, support the identification of covert sabotage vessels attempting to damage undersea cables, improve threat detection underwater, or provide early warnings of adversary troop movements. By connecting assets like subsea sensors, autonomous underwater vehicles, high-altitude aircraft and satellites to each other and central analysis functions, nations will be able to enhance their operational intelligence and gain an advantage at all levels in an increasingly congested and contested defence landscape.
Secure cloud becomes the heart of military operations
In 2025, governments around the world continued advancing towards more integrated defence operations. In its Strategic Defence Review, for example, the UK announced plans to create a Digital Targeting Web that links ‘sensors’, ‘deciders’ and ‘effectors’ – reflecting the idea that the side able to sense, understand and act fastest will win in the future battlespace.
As programmes like these mature, 2026 will see secure cloud architecture positioned at the heart of military operations, fundamentally reshaping how forces acquire, process and exploit information. This will enable multiple sensor feeds including electro-optic/infra-red, radar, acoustic and space-based sources to be ingested into a single, scalable environment. Meanwhile, cutting-edge technology such as AI and high-performance computing will deliver rapid fusion, pattern detection and target development at a speed and fidelity that outperforms traditional on-platform processing.
At the same time, the growing reliance on the cloud and wide-area connectivity will collide with the realities of high-end conflict, where jamming, spoofing and electromagnetic interference are deliberate adversary tactics. As a result, cloud-enabled forces will need robust fallbacks, such as line-of-sight radio, high frequency comms, and edge-processing nodes capable of operating during prolonged periods of isolation. In denied or degraded environments, devices will switch to low-bandwidth modes, synchronising with the cloud when windows of connectivity open. Future architectures will be designed around graceful degradation, ensuring that digital targeting chains continue to function, even if intermittently, under the harshest electronic warfare conditions.
For BAE Systems, this shift means that we are developing and delivering solutions that use open standards, secure APIs and cloud-native development practices. As the Digital Targeting Web matures, we will integrate seamlessly into cloud-enabled targeting and sensors networks, using resilient edge compute that continues operating when disconnected from central services. The end-state outcome is to ensure that we enable rapid, cross-domain sensing, decision-making and action.
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